20 comments
33 forecasters
When will a general purpose robotic manipulator be available, at a price under 1k (2022 USD)?
Current estimate
Jul 2032
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Mar 18, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 4, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 20, 2022
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
50% chance
80
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
Apr 2032
(06 Mar 2029 - Dec 2037)
Apr 2032
(06 Mar 2029 - Dec 2037)
53 forecasters
When will there be a robot available for sale to the general public which can reliably and safely change an infant human diaper unassisted?
Jul 2041
(Nov 2033 - Sep 2061)
Jul 2041
(Nov 2033 - Sep 2061)
18 forecasters