Question
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Total Forecasters326
Community Prediction
27.6 months
(8.17 months - 103 months)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 1.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 8.171 | — |
| median | 27.56 | — |
| upper 75% | 103 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >600 | 9.9% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021
