49 comments
332 forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Current estimate
32.6 months
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021
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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
22.4 months
(5.02 - 159)
22.4 months
(5.02 - 159)
240 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
27 Sep 2027
(09 Apr 2026 - May 2031)
27 Sep 2027
(09 Apr 2026 - May 2031)
1.7k forecasters
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
104 forecasters