Question
When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
08 Jan 2027
(15 Dec 2025 - 11 Nov 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 15 Dec 2025 | — |
| median | 08 Jan 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Nov 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2031 | 8.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 2, 2022
Closes:Mar 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 29, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 4, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 2, 2022
Closes:Mar 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 29, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 4, 2022