334 forecasters

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

9%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

May 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Spot Scoring Time:

May 21, 2018

Economy & Business

The End of the International Space Station Will Begin a New Era of Commercial Outposts

Scientific American•Nov 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?