Question

Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?

Resolved:No

11 comments11

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

12.6

Authors:

tomchivers

Opened:

Jan 5, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2022

Economy & Business

Health & Pandemics

2022 Leaderboard

‘Tremendous uncertainty’ for cancer research as US officials target mRNA vaccines

Guardian•Jul 12, 2025

Breakthrough breast cancer vaccine raises hopes of eradicating disease

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Breast cancer vaccine breakthrough as more than 75% of women show immune response in new test

Independent•Jul 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

24.2%

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50%

Authors:

tomchivers

Opened:

Jan 5, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2022

Economy & Business

Health & Pandemics

2022 Leaderboard

‘Tremendous uncertainty’ for cancer research as US officials target mRNA vaccines

Guardian•Jul 12, 2025

Breakthrough breast cancer vaccine raises hopes of eradicating disease

Independent•Jul 10, 2025

Breast cancer vaccine breakthrough as more than 75% of women show immune response in new test

Independent•Jul 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

24.2%

Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?

50%