Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question draft.

The author will submit it for review by Community Moderators when it's ready. Thanks for helping!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

ECB Deposit Facility Rate & next EA recession


Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely low interest rates throughout the economic upswing of the previous decade. The European Central Bank interest rate for bank overnight deposits has remained negative since June 2013. As of January 2022, it stands at -0.5%.

While the economies recover from Covid recession and inflation runs relatively high on both EA and US, Federal Reserve has already announced its intentions to raise its key interest rates during 2022. Will ECB at some point see the EA economy fit enough to follow Fed ´s lead and try to normalize its interest rate levels?

What will be the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession?

Question resolves when, according to the Eurostat, the Euro Area real GDP officially contracts (Quarter-on-quarter) for two successive quarters, which confirms a recession.

Deposit Facility Rate, among with other ECB key interest rates, are publicly announced on ECB website, and historical rates can be found from multiple sources. See, for example:…

Given the usual publishing delays with the macroeconomic data, the last rate level to be taken into account while defining the "highest Deposit Facility Rate" will be the rate at the end of the last day of the particular quarter which predates EA entry into recession, NOT the day when the news outlets report about the beginning of the recession.

Economy – EU

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.