assembling critical wisdom composing accurate estimations exploring probable understanding crowdsourcing probable forecasts crowdsourcing contingent contingencies mapping the future forecasting calibrated predictions modeling quantitative forecasts formulating predictive futures mapping contingent wisdom calculating definitive forecasts exploring accurate insights aggregating probable contingencies formulating precise wisdom

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Discussion topic: what features should Metaculus add?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Welcome to our inaugural "general discussion" question, a new feature we've just added. On that topic: what features or upgrades should we be contemplating? First, here are a few currently in the works:

  • New way to deal with "when" questions, to include a prediction that the event will not happen by a given end date (which is the high end of the numerical range.)

  • An improved "sort by interest" where an powerful AI will amalgamate all your personal information across the web to feed you the questions you should find most interesting. (Just kidding about that middle part, of course.)

  • Track record and Metaculus prediction for numerical questions.

  • Invite people to predict on your private questions, on a per-question basis.

and we've also been drawing up possible plans for the below bigger items, and are interested in input on how we might best do them:

  • Conditional predictions: i.e. creating predictions P(A|B) where B is the event in some other question.

  • Teaming, either with teams that are formed and persist across questions, and/or with a per-question "following" system.

  • Bounties: if you create a question, you can offer a tachyon bounty for people to make predictions on it.

So what else should be on the list?

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