Related Questions on Metaculus:
According to CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry, Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of
Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)
the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition
Russian logistical capabilities.
With Kyiv being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities.
Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?
This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, "entering Kyiv" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kyiv still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.