Question

Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?

Resolved:Ambiguous

157 comments157

Total Forecasters761

Community Prediction

25%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jan 21, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 21, 2022

Verity

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jan 21, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 21, 2022

Russia launches drone, missile attacks against Kyiv

PBS NewsHour•Jul 4, 2025

Russia hits Kyiv with massive air attack, biggest of war so far

•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

10%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%