157 comments
761 forecasters
Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?
25%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 25% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 21, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:May 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
2.5% chance
409
Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
14.4% chance
121
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174