239 forecasters

Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?

10%chance

10%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 25, 2022

Resolved:

Feb 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2022

2022 Leaderboard

Ukraine Launches Drone Barrage on Russian Oil Refinery

Newsweek•Sep 14, 2025

Poland shoots down Russian drones: Will NATO enter war in Ukraine?

Al Jazeera•Sep 10, 2025

Putin told US he will occupy Donbas region by end of 2025, Zelensky claims

Independent•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch