23 comments
263 forecasters
Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 25, 2022
Closes:Jul 16, 2022
Resolved:Mar 14, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 27, 2022
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
195
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
3% chance
409
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174