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15
43
forecasters
11
15 comments
43 forecasters
AI Technical Benchmarks
3 more...
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
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1.3×10²⁵
result
2.1×10²⁵
Resolved
2.1×10²⁵
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Current estimate
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Mar 2033
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Dec 2032
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Current estimate
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GPT-3 scaling plateau in < 3 OOMs
30%
chance