Question
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
Resolved:2.1×10²⁵Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction
1.3×10²⁵
(4.9×10²⁴ - 2.9×10²⁵)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²² | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 4.9×10²⁴ | — |
| median | 1.3×10²⁵ | — |
| upper 75% | 2.9×10²⁵ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁷ | 0.5% | — |
What was the final result?2.1×10²⁵
Community Peer Score
16.2
Community Baseline Score
30.5
Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
289k
Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
289k