200 forecasters

Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2022

2022 Leaderboard

Russia-Belarus military drill tests nerves on NATO’s eastern flank at the end of a tense week

CNN•Sep 12, 2025

Russia and Belarus launch military exercise that fueled Western concerns

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Russia and Belarus launch military exercise that fueled Western concerns

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

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