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91 forecasters
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
85%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 28, 2022
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
40% chance
66
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
60% chance
52
Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?
20% chance
53