37 comments
280 forecasters
Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?
90%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:May 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 23, 2022
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
195
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
3% chance
409
Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
14.4% chance
120