Question
When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?
Resolved:28 Jan 2024 12:00Total Forecasters111
Community Prediction
22 Aug 2024
(22 Jan 2024 - 12 Apr 2026)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 22 Jan 2024 | — |
| median | 22 Aug 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 12 Apr 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2035 | 5.0% | — |
What was the final result?28 Jan 2024 12:00
Community Baseline Score
43.8
Community Peer Score
23.6
Authors:
Opened:Jan 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 28, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 26, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 28, 2022
