Question

Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?

Resolved:Yes

13 comments13

Total Forecasters92

Community Prediction

91%

(89% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 91%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

1.4

Community Baseline Score

10.2

Authors:

abricinthewall

Opened:

Feb 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2022

Verity

Law

Trump orders colleges to prove they don't consider race in admissions

•Aug 13, 2025

Anti-affirmative action group drops lawsuits against West Point and Air Force Academy after policy changes

CNN•Aug 13, 2025

Complaint: Harvard Med Hiring Violates Constitution

Townhall•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?

40.8%

Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?

20%

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

45%

Authors:

abricinthewall

Opened:

Feb 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2022

Verity

Law

Trump orders colleges to prove they don't consider race in admissions

•Aug 13, 2025

Anti-affirmative action group drops lawsuits against West Point and Air Force Academy after policy changes

CNN•Aug 13, 2025

Complaint: Harvard Med Hiring Violates Constitution

Townhall•Aug 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?

40.8%

Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?

20%

Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?

45%