9 comments
36 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?
Authors:
Opened:Feb 4, 2022
Closes:Jan 2, 2025
Resolved:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 6, 2022
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
11 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
22 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
51.9%
(40.5 - 62.6)
51.9%
(40.5 - 62.6)
22 forecasters