Every year, psychiatrist and writer Scott Alexander makes public predictions for the year ahead. We applaud the practice and want to make it easy for the Metaculus Community to forecast along with the predictions he's placed on his blog Astral Codex Ten, so we've added the below Public Figure Predictions to his Public Figure page. And in a nice addition for 2022's list, Scott has made forecasts on some of same questions that Matt Yglesias and the Future Perfect team forecast on.

Happy Forecasting!

• In 2022 Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary [60%]

• Russia does not invade Ukraine in 2022 [60%]

• In 2022 Lula elected president of Brazil [50%]

• Fewer U.S. COVID deaths in 2022 than in 2021 [90%]

• In 2022 no military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan (a worryingly low 90%)

• Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats in 2022 [80%]

• Democrats lose at least two Senate seats in 2022 [80%]

• Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics [60%]

• In 2022 Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture [30%]

• 2022 will be warmer than 2021 [80%]

• In 2022 the Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more [70%]

• In 2022 the US government will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research [60%]

• By January 1, 2023 a psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state [75%]

• At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by 11/2022 [95%]

• 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by 11/2022 [80%]

• WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern by the end of 2022 [75%]

• 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by the end of 2022 [65%]

• In 2022 Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines [60%]

• In 2022 Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil [50%]