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48 comments
157 forecasters

When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?

Current estimate
>Dec 2030
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
AdamKosloff
Opened:Jun 11, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 12, 2018
Economy & Business
Technology
Independent logo
Could a new ‘quiet’ supersonic jet cut down your flight time? NASA just ran its first test flight for it
Independent•Nov 1, 2025
New York Post logo
NASA’s silent X-59 jet can break sound barrier with almost no noise, take passengers from NYC to London in 3½ hours
New York Post•Oct 31, 2025
Associated Press logo
NASA takes one step closer to launching quiet supersonic jets
Associated Press•Oct 31, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030?

5% chance
236

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
8 forecasters

By 2050, will it be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income?

40% chance
27
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