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48 comments
157 forecasters

When will the next commercial supersonic flight occur?

Current estimate
>Dec 2030
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
AdamKosloff
Opened:Jun 11, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 12, 2018
Economy & Business
Technology
Forbes logo
Amtrak’s New Trains Are Not Fast—Yet.
Forbes•Nov 4, 2025
Independent logo
Could a new ‘quiet’ supersonic jet cut down your flight time? NASA just ran its first test flight for it
Independent•Nov 1, 2025
New York Post logo
NASA’s silent X-59 jet can break sound barrier with almost no noise, take passengers from NYC to London in 3½ hours
New York Post•Oct 31, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030?

5% chance
236

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
8 forecasters

By 2050, will it be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income?

40% chance
27
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