There currently exist two self-declared breakaway states on de jure Ukrainian territory: Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic. Neither is currently recognised by Russia, though it has supported both in their conflict with the Ukrainians. A draft law was registered on 19 January 2022 by 11 members of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) to recognise the two breakaway states, which will next head to review in February. Russia previously recognised the similar breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on territory claimed by Georgia following its war with that country in 2008.
Will Russia recognise a breakaway state on any territories claimed by Ukraine by 2023?
The question will resolve positively if Russia recognizes any existing or new self-declared states on territory claimed by Ukraine. At least 50% of the territory of the breakaway state needs to be within the current US-recognized borders of Ukraine to count toward a positive resolution. Otherwise the question will resolve negatively.