Question

If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?

Resolved:Yes

86 comments86

Total Forecasters414

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.0

Community Peer Score

1.3

Authors:

ClayGraubard

Opened:

Feb 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 12, 2022

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Syria Makes First International Bank Transfers Since Fall of Assad

Breitbart•Jun 20, 2025

EU squeezes Russia financially to reach ‘peace through strength’ in Ukraine

Al Jazeera•Jun 20, 2025

Has Putin pushed the Russian economy to its limits?

Spectator (UK)•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

20%

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

65%

Authors:

ClayGraubard

Opened:

Feb 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 12, 2022

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Syria Makes First International Bank Transfers Since Fall of Assad

Breitbart•Jun 20, 2025

EU squeezes Russia financially to reach ‘peace through strength’ in Ukraine

Al Jazeera•Jun 20, 2025

Has Putin pushed the Russian economy to its limits?

Spectator (UK)•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

20%

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

65%