483 forecasters

Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?

3%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 22, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 23, 2018

Economy & Business

Tesla suffers huge market share loss as shoppers look to rivals... and it's only going to get worse

Daily Mail•Sep 9, 2025

Tesla's EV market share in the US falls to its lowest level in 8 years

Business Insider•Sep 9, 2025

Tesla market share in US drops to lowest since 2017 as Elon Musk pivots to robotaxis

New York Post•Sep 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch