Related Question on Metaculus:
In late 2021 and early 2022, several Western governments began publicly expressing concern about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine outside the previously occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The New York Times reported on January 14, 2022:
“If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”
NBC reported on February 8, 2022:
“Even with the disparity of forces, they can move in very fast and quite successfully, but then holding it would be a disaster,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense who left office in 2020. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraine’s military is fully aware of its weaknesses when it comes to a conventional face-to-face war and that plans for an insurgency or guerrilla-style resistance movement led by Ukraine’s military are now the government’s primary strategy — even if the Ministry of Defense has not stated so publicly.
Others have been skeptical that a "serious" Ukrainian insurgency will take place, for instance on January 26, 2022, Richard Hanania predicted "Washington is now deluding itself into believing that it can help facilitate an insurgency in Ukraine. This will not happen."
If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?
This question will resolve positively if Russia invades Ukraine in the year 2022, and between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed by Ukrainian armed forces in Ukraine.
For the purposes of this question, we will use the terms as defined in Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023: we will consider Russia to have invaded Ukraine if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will be disregarded. If there is no such invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this question will resolve ambiguously.
To determine the count of deaths of Russian soldiers, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting). Deaths may include any members of the Russian armed services, but not Russian civillians.
For the purposes of this question, the deaths of members of the Russian armed services must occur within the boundaries of the nation of Ukraine as internationally recognized on January 1, 2014. Therefore attacks conducted within Crimea or the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will qualify.
For the purposes of this question, the Ukrainian armed forces may be made up of members of the Ukrainian armed forces; members of the Ukrainian police, border guards, intelligence agencies, or similar government personnel; militia; or armed or unarmed civilians. Non-Ukrainians working in conjunction with Ukrainians count as long as they are not members of a non-Ukrainian military. As the exact identity of insurgents may not always be clear, any deaths of Russian armed service personnel by violence within Ukrainian borders will be assumed to be from Ukrainian insurgents unless the identity of the attackers can be determined otherwise, or the purpose of the killing is clearly non-political/military.
For the purposes of this question, "members of the Russian armed services" will include any members of the Russian Ground Forces, Navy, Aerospace Forces, Strategic Rocket Forces, Airborne Troops, Federal Security Service (FSB), Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), the Federal Protective Service (FSO), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Main Directorate of the General Staff (GRU), National Guard, or Border Service. Members of the paramilitary organization the Wagner Group will qualify, as they have operated out of Russian military bases and in close coordination with the Russian armed forces in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Deaths of civillians, whether Ukrainian or Russian, will be excluded.