In February 2022, Russia officially recognized Ukraine's breakaway republics and provided them with military support in the context of the ongoing border conflict with Ukraine. Metaculites predict an invasion of Ukraine with a high probability of 89% on the corresponding question on February 22, 2022. There is uncertainty around how this would influence the internal support for the president. Levada center provides monthly values of approval ratings for Putin and for various key institutions of Russia.
The approval rating is reported to be:
hovering in the 60%-70% range throughout 2011-2013;
surging to 80%-90% after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine in 2014 and staying there until 2018;
tumbling down to the 60%-70% range again after the retirement age was raised in Russia in 2018 and staying there until 2022.
What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?
The prediction target is the value of Putin's approval rating as reported by the Levada center 3 months after the question about the Ukraine invasion is resolved positively.
If the question about the invasion is resolved negatively or ambiguously, the present question would be resolved ambiguously.