Related Questions on Metaculus:
As of 2/22/2022, Russia had begun a military incursion into eastern Ukraine, in separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, which was described by UK authorities as a "renewed invasion of the country,” as reported by The Standard and by an official of the US government as "the beginning of an invasion," according to Politico.
Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and located only about 70 km (43 miles) from the Polish border, is the city to which the embassy personnel of the United States, Israel and the UK, have been moved, having abandoned Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion. For further background please see "Ukraine’s Lviv becomes ‘western capital’ as some diplomats leave Kyiv" by David L. Stern Washington Post, 18 February 2022. The US has also discussed plans for Ukrainian President Zelensky to move to Lviv should Russia launch a full-scale invasion.
Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?
This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, "entering Lviv" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Lviv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government that is recognized by the US government as legitimate. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.