200 forecasters

Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 1, 2022

Closes:

Jun 29, 2023

Resolved:

Jul 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

2022-2023 Leaderboard

NATO should impose no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect against Russian drones, Poland says

CNN•Sep 15, 2025

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

NATO at War With Russia, Kremlin Says

Newsweek•Sep 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?