Question

Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?

Resolved:No

31 comments31

Total Forecasters200

Community Prediction

(0.5% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.5

Community Peer Score

14.6

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Mar 1, 2022

Closes:

Jun 29, 2023

Resolves:

Jul 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Verity

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

NATO shifts focus as US under Trump retreats from leading role on Ukraine

•Jun 25, 2025

Zelensky warns Russia could attack Nato country within next five years

Independent•Jun 25, 2025

‘Stressful and difficult summer’ ahead for Ukraine, NATO official warns

Defense One•Jun 25, 2025

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