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Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024?

1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticismresult: No

2. An anonymous process to raise risksresult: No

4. No retaliation for public risk disclosureresult: No

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

Contributed by the Harvard's AI Safety Student Team community.

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

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