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Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
2031
15%
2026
3.3%
9
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?
0.1%
62.9 percentage points this week
776 forecasters
8
22 comments
22
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-07-20
944 forecasters
66
119 comments
119
Effective Institutions Project
When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model?
2025-02-09
15 forecasters
10
7 comments
7
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
80%
51 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
Business of AI
Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery
19
10 comments
10
Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?
Closed
60%
25 forecasters
no comments
0
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?
2%
206 forecasters
20
40 comments
40
AI Safety
When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
2021-06-11
90 forecasters
33
38 comments
38
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?
Resolved :
No
2%
62 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Global Pulse Tournament
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