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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved:Yes
10 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Annual Drug Overdose Deaths? (2028)

116k

US Annual Drug Overdose Deaths? (2028)

113k
Resolved:Annulled
2
1 comment1
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved:Yes
5 forecasters
if yes
if no

National US Measles Vaccinations 2028-2029?

91.5

National US Measles Vaccinations 2028-2029?

92.1
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved:Yes
7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Share of US GDP Spent on Healthcare in 2030?

17.5

Share of US GDP Spent on Healthcare in 2030?

17.5
Resolved:Annulled
2
no comments0
2024 Electoral Consequences

Will the study in Ghana find that RTS,S combined with malaria chemoprevention reduces clinical malaria more than RTS,S alone in the following age groups?

18 months old80%
24 months old68%

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

≥3%50%
≥5%29%

Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?

93%chance

Will GiveWell recommend grants of more than $5 million to support delivering chlorine and/or oral rehydration solution and zinc along with vaccine outreach services?

88%chance

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

92%chance

Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?

88%chance

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

323.2%
221.2%
420.2%
and 4 others