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Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?

2.5%chance

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

34%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

9
1 comment1
Space Technology & Climate

Climate — Last Wave and $2,500 for Comments

9
5 comments5
Climate Tipping Points Round 2

The Climate Tipping Points Tournament

17
1 comment1
Climate Tipping Points

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%chance

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%chance
condition

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Jan 2052

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Mar 2035
2
1 comment1

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

26%chance