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Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

5%chance

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

23 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 comments7

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.709

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.04

10 comments10

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Omicron: What We Know, What To Expect, & What To Do

2 comments2

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

no comments0

Metaculus Journal Archives

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2024/25

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Omicron: What We Know, What To Expect, & What To Do

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2024/25

How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Omicron: What We Know, What To Expect, & What To Do

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis