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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

2
no comments0

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singapore80%
Taiwan73%
and 9 others

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance
4.8% this week

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

4%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest