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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?

55%chance

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

49%chance

Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?

70%chance

Is the human being, as opposed to everything else in nature, an exception to causality? Rephrased: Is the entire universe deterministic?

9
6 comments6

Drake's Equation 5th Parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?

3.48×10⁻⁴%

Playing God Question Series

7
no comments0
Playing God Series

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance