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condition

EU and US Cut Diplomatic Ties before 2051?

4 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2123

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2103
1
no comments0

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.5%chance

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
no comments0
2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

21%chance

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

March 15, 20260.5%
March 15, 2024result: No
March 15, 20250.1%

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
Renewresult: No
and 4 others

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
and 4 others

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro95%
North Macedonia85%
Albania82.5%
and 17 others
condition

Major State Exits EU before 2027?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

Apr 2066

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2077
2
3 comments3