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Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

Islámský extremismus55.5%
Pravicový extremismus34.5%
Levicový a anarchistický extremismus5%
and 1 other

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.7%chance

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

March 15, 20260.5%
March 15, 2024result: No
March 15, 20250.1%

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
and 4 others

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro95%
North Macedonia85%
Albania82.5%
and 17 others
condition

War in Europe by 2153?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2100

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2144
3
no comments0
condition

European Army before 2032?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2142

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2142
2
no comments0

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11
3 comments3