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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

2336 forecasters

249

176 comments176

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

11 percentage points this week

243 forecasters

21

Ragnarök Series

What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?

20

AI Technical Benchmarks

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

385 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

35

167 comments167

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

274 forecasters

41

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

7

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

4

Regulation of AI

Will AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist?

Resolved :No42%

25

AI Demonstrations

A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic

Resolved :No41%

110 forecasters

20

AI ambiguity Series