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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

4
no comments0

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Nvidia5%
Google5%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%chance

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others