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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%chance
4% this week

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

12
2 comments2
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?

06 Nov 2029

Life on the Icy Moons and Ocean Worlds of the Outer Solar System

15
1 comment1

Computability and Complexity

16
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest