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Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2024/25

7
4 comments4
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance
2.3% this week

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

25%chance

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

resultNo

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

resultNo

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

no comments0

The new variants and the next phase of the pandemic

no comments0

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Annulled