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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 2 individuals in June 2025?

resultNo

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)result: No
Barack Obamaresult: No
Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)result: No
and 8 others

Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?

J.D. Vanceresult: Yes
Vivek Ramaswamyresult: No
Donald Trump Jr.result: No
and 26 others

Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?

resultNo

Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?

15%chance

Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?

2%chance
1% this week

Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?

Trump found guilty of at least one felonyresult: Yes
Trump found guilty of ONLY misdemeanour(s)result: No
Mixed: partial acquittal, no convictionsresult: No
and 3 others

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

70%chance
5% this week

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

40%chance