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Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

203644%
203020%
20261%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI-enabled automation constitute more than half of the World's GDP by the end of the Century?

6
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Are we doomed to be surprised by radically surprising AI futures?

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

85%chance