• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

203644%
203020%
20261%

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Equitable Distribution of AGI Gains

4
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI-enabled automation constitute more than half of the World's GDP by the end of the Century?

6
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

85%chance

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

5
4 comments4

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance