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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

28%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

18%chance
8% this week

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

May 2042

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.5%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

resultYes

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%chance

Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

resultNo