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US Democracy Index

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Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

3 comments

28 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance

13.7% this week

3 comments

5 forecasters

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Engineering10k

Physics548

Microbiology and immunology543

9 comments

111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

condition

14 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

condition

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

31 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

33%

US-China war before 2035?

31 forecasters

342 forecasters

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

9%chance

Key Factors

374 comments

1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance

Key Factors

0 comments

28 forecasters

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

20351.5%

20301%

35 comments

575 forecasters

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

15%chance

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?