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If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?

90.5 k$

34.5 k$ this week

condition

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

12.8 Tg

34.3 Tg this week

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

4.77

attacks

149 attacks this week

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

resultYes

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.238%

0.1 % this week

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

75%chance

15% this week

condition

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

15 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

23%

US-China war before 2035?

no comments0

The Taiwan Tinderbox

condition

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

11 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

13%

US-China war before 2035?

22%

no comments0

The Taiwan Tinderbox

If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Key Factor

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?

US is a NATO Member until 2029?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Key Factor

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?