Last Modified: Jun 13, 2025
These rules govern all tournaments and competitions (collectively, "Competition(s)") hosted on Metaculus unless superseded by specific terms, guidelines, or descriptions provided on the relevant Competition or in associated rules. Competitions on Metaculus are skills-based, designed to evaluate participants' forecasting and reasoning skills. No purchase, fee, or payment is required to participate. All entries are judged by an algorithm, or in some cases when specifically disclosed for a particular contest, a panel of judges, in each case applying objective criteria.
Each Competition on Metaculus has its own unique page which displays the applicable prize pool, the relevant forecasting questions, and any specific rules governing that Competition. Unless otherwise indicated on the Competition page, prize(s) are determined according to Metaculus' Tournament Scoring Rules, which allocate prizes algorithmically based on the accuracy of each registered participant's ("Participant User") forecasts and/or according to criteria published on the relevant Competition page as judged by a panel of judges selected by Metaculus. The prize(s) awarded to such winner(s), and when such prize(s) will be awarded will be posted on the relevant Competition page. All Competitions will be run in accordance with these rules, Competition-specific rules, if any, all applicable laws, and the Metaculus Terms of Use (collectively, "Competition Rules"). Such Competition Rules will also include how and when a Participant User must submit Competition Entries (defined below) and the rights that Metaculus and any competition sponsor(s) will be granted in such Competition Entry. The Competition Rules may impose additional restrictions or requirements for Competitions.
Each Participant User will comply with all Competition Rules, and submission of a Competition Entry or registration for a Competition constitutes acceptance by Participant User of the Competition Rules.
You acknowledge and agree that Metaculus may, without any liability but without any obligation to do so, remove or disqualify a Participant User, if Metaculus determines, in its sole and absolute discretion, that such Participant User is in violation these Competition Rules or the sitewide Terms of Use or otherwise poses a risk to Metaculus, the Service (as defined in the Terms of Use) or another user of the Service.
Notwithstanding anything to the contrary contained herein, Participant Users acknowledge and agree that Metaculus has no obligation to hold a Competition Entry in confidence or otherwise restrict its activities based on receipt of such Competition Entry. Metaculus has no obligation to become involved in disputes between users or between users and any third party relating to the use of the Services.
Metaculus will decide the final resolution of all forecasting questions at its sole discretion. Annulled or Ambiguous questions will no longer be scored as part of the Competition.
Metaculus reserves the right to cancel, suspend, or modify a Competition if any unforeseen problem – technical, legal or otherwise – prevents the Competition from being run as planned.
A "Competition Entry" will consist of any User Content which Metaculus considers to pertain to a Competition. If you are a Participant User and submit a Competition Entry, then you grant Metaculus certain rights to that Competition Entry as set forth in the Terms of Use. Metaculus may transfer or sublicense those rights to a sponsor of the Competition or other third party that has helped arrange or is otherwise involved in the Competition (hereafter "Partners"), as permitted by the Terms of Use.
Competitions on Metaculus are generally open to participants worldwide, ages 13 or older; however, in compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, we cannot send monetary prizes, cash equivalents, or physical prizes to individuals located in countries subject to U.S. sanctions or export restrictions, including but not limited to Russia, Cuba, North Korea, and others as determined by current regulations. Participants from these restricted countries are welcome to compete, unless otherwise ineligible under the Terms of Use, and may earn non-monetary rewards such as medals, rankings, or recognition within our platform, as long as such awards do not violate applicable laws. By participating, users acknowledge their responsibility to comply with local laws and confirm their understanding that eligibility for prizes is subject to these restrictions. We reserve the right to withhold monetary or physical prizes where distribution would contravene U.S. or other applicable laws, and this policy is subject to change based on updates to legal requirements. Certain Competitions may have further geographic or age restrictions and be open only to residents of certain countries. Employees or, to the extent prohibited under an applicable contract, independent contractors of Metaculus and its Partners and their respective affiliates, subsidiaries, and agencies, and members of their immediate family or persons living in the same household are not eligible to participate in any Competition. Any person wishing to participate must create a free Metaculus user account. No purchase or entry fee is necessary to enter a Metaculus competition. Void where prohibited.
You may enter a Competition only once. Entering more than once will void all entries and result in disqualification. You may not enter more than once by using multiple email addresses, identities, or devices in an attempt to circumvent this prohibition. Unless otherwise specifically permitted on the Competition-specific rules, Participant Users are not allowed to share accounts or participate as a team under one account – forecasts must be your own work.
Unless otherwise specifically permitted in the Competition-specific rules, automated systems, bots, artificial intelligence, or user accounts which are officially registered as bot accounts, are ineligible for tournament prizes. However, human participants are allowed to use AI tools or systems to assist in their forecasting, as long as the final submissions reflect their own decisions and understanding.
At the conclusion of the Competition or a stage of a Competition, Metaculus will publish an announcement of the Competition rankings and winners. Metaculus may remove a Participant User at any time, including in the final announcement of the rankings and winners, if Metaculus believes that the Participant User is not eligible to receive a prize, is in violation of these Competition Rules or the Terms of Use, or has cheated in the Competition.
Prize winners will be notified by email (or via any other contact information the Participant User has provided), with instructions describing steps that must be taken by winners in order to receive the prize. The communication may contain reasonable time period(s) by which certain steps must be completed in order to receive the prize. If the Participant User fails to respond to this communication, or, during subsequent communications, fails to provide the necessary information within the sooner of (i) the required time period(s) or (ii) 180 days after Metaculus sent the winner notification, such Participant User will be deemed to have forfeited the prize and waived any and all claims against Metaculus and its Partners with respect to such prize winnings.
In order to receive the prize, prize winners must sign and return any and all acceptance documents as may be required by Metaculus and its Partners, and provide any and all information Metaculus deems necessary to deliver the prize, including without limitation: (a) eligibility certifications or proof of identity; (b) U.S. tax forms (such as IRS Form W-9 if U.S. resident, IRS Form W-8BEN if foreign resident, or future equivalents); (c) payment delivery information, such as bank account information, provided to Metaculus or via a third-party service as instructed by Metaculus.
Metaculus and its Partners shall have no liability for any failures, delays, or errors in email or other communication delivery, including but not limited to instances where notifications sent to prize winners are not received, are delayed, or are sent to incorrect addresses. Additionally, Metaculus and its Partners are not liable for the failure of delivery of prizes sent electronically or physically, including but not limited to issues arising from incorrect or outdated recipient information provided by the Participant User, errors or delays by third-party delivery or courier services, or any other unforeseen circumstances. It is the sole responsibility of the Participant User to provide accurate and up-to-date contact and delivery information. Metaculus assumes no liability for any consequences arising from incorrect information or issues related to third-party service providers.
Metaculus reserves the right to update or otherwise correct the leaderboard, winners announcement, and communications about prizes and winners if Metaculus believes there are any errors in the same, or if Metaculus believes that Participant Users must be removed or disqualified for ineligibility or violations of these Competition Rules or the Terms of Use.
Metaculus awards tournament prizes based on the information available and the determinations Metaculus has made at the time tournament winners are announced. While Metaculus retains sole discretion to re-resolve forecasting questions where it believes an error occurred in prior resolutions, it is the general policy of Metaculus that such re-resolutions will not result in the issuance of additional prizes, compensation, or modifications to previously announced prizes or official tournament placements. Notwithstanding this general policy, Metaculus reserves the right, at its sole discretion, to offer additional prizes or compensation for questions that re-resolve after tournament winners have been announced; however, Metaculus is under no obligation to do so.
Competition winners will receive payouts or prizes that depend on their rank and performance, as determined according to Metaculus' Tournament Scoring Rules, which allocate prizes algorithmically based on the accuracy of each Participant User's forecasts and/or according to criteria published on the relevant Competition page as judged by a panel of judges selected by Metaculus. Monetary payouts may be paid in the form of cash or a cash equivalent, which may include but is not limited to prepaid virtual cards, gift cards, or similar methods, at the discretion of Metaculus. Metaculus reserves the right to determine the specific form of payment, and no alternative form of payment will be offered unless explicitly provided by Metaculus. Taxes and fees are paid by recipients.
Metaculus may modify the rules on this page with or without prior notice. By using the Service after these rules have been updated, each Participant User agrees to be bound by the then-current version of these rules. It is therefore important that Participant Users review these rules regularly to ensure they are aware of any such changes. Updated rules will be effective as of the time of posting, or such later date as may be specified in the updates, and will apply to all Competitions from that time forward.