Every day, billions of animals suffer in ways we can prevent, but only if we direct our resources wisely. The people working to reduce that suffering face hard questions with thin evidence: which interventions actually work, where the next dollar should go, and how the landscape will shift over the next few years.

The Animal Futures Tournament asks forecasters to help answer questions like these. Every question here was crowdsourced from the animal advocacy community and vetted for decision-relevance, which means a forecast on each one could plausibly inform a real funding or strategy decision. They span farmed animal welfare commitments, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, and the ways advanced AI may come to shape the lives of animals.

The tournament builds on Metaculus's earlier animal welfare and alternative protein forecasting work, and was developed with support from Unjournal. The prize pool was funded via Manifund.

You don't need to be an animal advocate to take part. Whether you have spent years in the movement or you are a forecaster looking for fresh, decision-relevant questions, your predictions are welcome and useful here. A wider range of perspectives makes the aggregate forecast stronger and the results more credible to the funders and organizations who will use them.

Compete for prizes, and help build a more informed, more effective movement.

Tournament Rules

This tournament features a $3,400 prize pool based on our usual time-averaged scores. Most questions in the tournament will resolve in 2027, with prizes awarded thereafter. Three questions have longer timeframes and will not be included in the leaderboard calculations, but to be eligible for prizes, participants must maintain active forecasts on at least two of them for the majority of the tournament duration.

A small second wave of questions will be added a few weeks after tournament launch. Click the ‘Follow’ button to be notified when that happens.

Bot Participation Rules

You are welcome to enter this tournament and compete for prizes using a forecasting bot account, but you can only enter the competition once, either as a bot or as a normal user.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Animal Futures Tournament

Questions