The 2024 contest has concluded! See the winners here, and compete in the ACX 2025 contest here by Jan 31.

You are welcome to update your predictions to contribute to greater clarity in 2024, but updates after January 21, 2024, 11:59 PM PT will not contribute to your score.

Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes!

What began as Scott Alexander publishing yearly predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into an annual forecasting community tradition. It’s an excellent opportunity for veteran and rookie forecasters alike to hone their skills and follow current events through a forecasting lens. This year, Scott Alexander has invited Metaculus to oversee the contest.

Contest details

The ACX 2024 Predictions Contest challenges your ability to forecast deep into the new year from its earliest weeks. To participate, make your predictions, and we will take a snapshot of every standing prediction on January 21st, 11:59 PM PT. These snapshots will determine the contest winners.

Prizes

We're excited to announce a prize pool of $2,500!

1st place: $1,000
2nd place: $625
3rd place: $375
4th place: $300
5th place: $200

Note: These prize allotments differ from other Metaculus tournaments’ allotments, which align with proper scoring rules.

Scoring

We will sum your peer scores on all questions you forecast. You are welcome to update your forecasts between January 1st and January 21st. Only your forecasts as of January 21st 11:59 PM PT are considered for this contest.

Note that Coverage is not a factor in this contest’s scoring.

While you are encouraged to continue forecasting in February and beyond to continue strengthening the aggregate forecasts, predictions after the snapshot date will not influence contest rankings. (Predictions will continue to be scored according to the normal scoring rules for the purposes of medals and leaderboards.)

Hidden period

The Community Prediction for contest questions will be hidden until February 1st, 2024, after the forecast snapshot.

January 10 Update

The question Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? is removed from the contest due to NASA's announcement to not pursue a 2024 flight. See this comment for more.

We will announce winners in early 2025.

Explore last year’s ACX contest here.

Note: The leaderboard below was updated on January 21, 2025, to reflect the rankings based on the forecasts as of January 21, 2024, which is the leaderboard used for the final rankings and prizes once all questions have resolved. See the winners announcement for more details.

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Questions