While we encourage updating your predictions to contribute to greater clarity in 2025, only updates made before January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT will count toward tournament rankings.

Share your forecasts for the year ahead on questions spanning US politics, AI, international relations, cultural developments, and more. Submit your predictions by January 31st to help bring 2025 into focus while competing for an expanded $10,000 prize pool—a sizable increase from last year’s $2,500!

Contest Details

The ACX 2025 Predictions Contest challenges your ability to forecast deep into the year from its first few weeks. To participate, make your predictions, and we will take a snapshot of every standing prediction on January 31st, 11:59 PM PT. These snapshots will determine the contest winners.

Scoring

We will sum your peer scores on all questions you forecast. Only your forecasts as of January 31st, 11:59 PM PT will be considered for this contest.

Spot Scoring: You are not required to update your predictions throughout the year, though you are welcome to do so to contribute to aggregate accuracy. Forecasts made or updated after January 31st will not influence contest rankings.
No Coverage Factor: Coverage will not be included in this contest’s scoring system.

Note: Forecasts submitted after the snapshot date will be scored only for medals and leaderboards, not for prizes or official rankings.

Hidden Period

The Community Prediction for contest questions will remain hidden until February 1st, 2025, after the snapshot deadline, and winners will be announced in early 2026. Also, note that some questions appearing here also appear in the Future Perfect Community and contest. These questions have had their CPs hidden again until February 1st.

Forecasting Bots

You are welcome to create a bot account to forecast and participate in addition to your regular Metaculus account. We're excited to see how AI forecasting performs in its ACX Prediction Contest debut.

Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark contest page for templates and support building your bot.

An annual forecasting tradition

What started as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into a vibrant forecasting community tradition. This contest offers both seasoned and aspiring forecasters a chance to refine their skills while tracking current events through a predictive lens. For 2025, Scott Alexander has once again partnered with Metaculus to host the competition.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Questions