Scoring Cutoff

Only forecasts submitted by January 17, 2026, 11:59 PM PT will count toward your final tournament score and prize eligibility. That said, we welcome you to keep updating your predictions throughout the year as events unfold.

An Annual Forecasting Tradition

What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has grown into a vibrant, community-wide forecasting tradition.

This year’s contest draws directly from that community, with all questions suggested by ACX readers. Both experienced forecasters and newcomers are invited to participate, making predictions across U.S. politics, AI, international affairs, and culture.

To participate, submit your predictions by January 17th at 11:59 PM PT. At that time, we will take a snapshot of all standing forecasts, which will determine the contest rankings and the allocation of the $10,000 prize pool. We will also reveal Community Predictions at that time. While you are encouraged to continue updating your predictions throughout the year, forecasts made after January 17th will only affect site leaderboards, not contest rankings.

Contest Details

Spot Scoring: Your contest score will be based solely on your forecasts as of January 17th, 11:59 PM PT. After that point, you are welcome to update your predictions to contribute to aggregate accuracy, but these updates will not affect contest rankings. Your score will be the sum of your Spot Peer Scores across every question you participated in.
Auto-withdrawal: Metaculus now withdraws your forecasts if you haven't updated them in some time. This will not affect your participation in the tournament, as by default forecasts will be withdrawn after January 17th.

Forecasting Bots

You are welcome to create a bot account to forecast and participate in addition to your regular Metaculus account. Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark contest page for templates and support building your bot.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

ACX 2026 Prediction Contest

Questions