Welcome!

Make your predictions, learn more about what's next for Gulf Breeze, and help support your community! $3,000 prize pool.

Scroll down to learn about the contest. Click the below toggle sections to expand them and read more. Or, get right to the predicting by scrolling down and clicking on the questions!

What's this all about?
We're asking residents to predict when city projects will be completed—like "Will the new boat dock at Shoreline Park open by February 2026?" or "Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in 2025?" Your forecasts help city planners understand what the community expects, while you compete for $3,000 in prizes. It's a fun way to stay informed about local projects and help shape our city's future!

First time forecasting? No worries! We've included everything you need to know below. This contest is designed for beginners, and we'll guide you through every step.

About This Contest

This contest was created by Christian Williams, a Gulf Breeze resident of six years who serves as Communications Director at Metaculus. Christian lives in Gulf Breeze with his wife and their four daughters, and developed this tournament in collaboration with City Hall staff as a way to strengthen community engagement and support data-driven decision making in the city he and his family call home.

The questions in this contest are drawn directly from the City's 5-Year Strategic Plan and other documents, ensuring that your forecasts address real projects that will shape our community's future.

Why Forecasting Matters for Gulf Breeze

Forecasting isn't just about predicting the future—it's about thinking carefully about what's extremely unlikely, somewhat likely, or all but certain to happen. When you make a forecast, you're encouraged to:

Gather relevant information and consider multiple perspectives
Think about different levels of certainty rather than just yes-or-no answers
Change your mind as new information becomes available
Learn from outcomes to improve future judgment

Your predictions on questions like "Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads in 2025?" or "Will at least 100 homes switch from septic to sewer in 2025?" will contribute to a clearer picture of realistic timelines while helping you become a more informed citizen.

This initiative supports civic engagement and helps promote Gulf Breeze's upcoming National Community Survey—another important way to make your voice heard in shaping our community's future. Learn more about city initiatives at cityofgulfbreeze.us.

How Metaculus Forecasting Works

Think of forecasting like being a weather forecaster, but for city projects! You'll answer questions about when projects will be completed or whether certain goals will be met by giving a percentage that represents how likely you think it is.

Making Your First Prediction

For each question, you'll see a slider or input box where you can enter a percentage between 0% and 100%:

0% = "I'm certain this won't happen"
25% = "Probably not, but there's a chance"
50% = "Could go either way—like a coin flip"
75% = "Pretty likely, but not guaranteed"
100% = "I'm certain this will happen"

For example, when asked "Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?" you might think about the typical timeline for similar projects, consider potential delays, and forecast 70% if you think it's likely but not certain.

Getting Started

Signup is free and takes just a moment! Click the Sign Up button at the top of the page. A quick tutorial will walk you through the platform. Then you can either:

Use the Prediction Flow button at the top to systematically go through all 33 questions
Or scroll down to browse the questions and start with ones that interest you most

Remember: There's no "perfect" forecast—just give your honest assessment based on what you know!

Prize Money & Eligibility

    Prize Pool: $3,000

    No purchase necessary! This prize money is provided by Metaculus as part of a civic technology pilot project to explore how forecasting can help local communities make better decisions.

Who Can Participate?

Anyone can forecast! We welcome all participants to make predictions and help our community. However, to be eligible for prize money, you must be a resident of one of the following counties:

Eligible Counties:

Santa Rosa County, FL
Okaloosa County, FL
Escambia County, FL
Walton County, FL
Bay County, FL
Washington County, FL
Baldwin County, AL
Mobile County, AL

Prize Money Distribution

How It Works:

The $3,000 prize pool is distributed based on your forecasting performance across all contest questions.

Your Score: For each question you forecast, you earn a "Peer score" based on how accurate your predictions are compared to other forecasters. Better predictions = higher scores.

Your Total Score: We add up all your Peer scores from every question you forecast.

Your Prize Share: If your total score is positive, you receive a share of the prize money. The higher your score, the greater your share of the $3,000. (If your total take is less than $10, it goes back into the larger pool. Paying out amounts smaller than $10 requires a lot of administration.)

The Bottom Line:

Forecast on every question you can
Make your best, honest predictions
Start forecasting early rather than waiting

The more questions you forecast accurately, the better your chances of winning a larger share of the $3,000 prize pool.

As questions start to be answered, we'll add a live leaderboard so you can see your performance.

Important Timeline Information

While some questions in this contest look ahead to 2026 and beyond (like "Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?"), only your performance on questions that resolve by December 31, 2025 will count toward the prize pool.

However, the City of Gulf Breeze will review all forecasts—including those for later dates—to help with long-term community planning.

Make sure to predict on all 33 questions! The Prediction Flow button at the top of the page will help ensure you don't miss any.

How Scoring Works

Don't worry—the scoring system is designed to reward thoughtful predictions, not just lucky guesses!

The Basics

You earn points based on two things:

Whether you were right or wrong
How confident you were

Simple Examples

When you're right: If you forecast 80% chance that "Gulf Breeze will win at least $1 million in new natural resource grants during 2025" and it happens, you get more points than someone who only said 55%. Being confident when you're correct pays off!

When you're wrong: If you forecast 80% chance the grants come through, but they don't, you lose more points than someone who said 20%. Being overconfident when wrong is costly!

Extreme predictions are risky: Say you think "Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?" is wildly unlikely—just 1% chance (1 out of 100 times). If it actually does happen, this hurts your score way more than if you had been less extreme and said 40% (4 out of 10 times). Same goes for being 99% sure about something that doesn't happen!

Key Takeaway

You don't need to understand the math—just know that honest, well-calibrated predictions score best. What does "calibrated" mean? If you forecast something is 70% likely to happen, then you should expect that kind of thing to happen 7 out of 10 times. If it happens 3 out of 10 times, you might have been too confident. If it happens 10 out of 10 times, you might have been underconfident! The scoring naturally rewards predictions that match reality over time.

Looking for additional forecasting opportunities? Predict in the Metaculus Cup, featuring a $5,000 prize pool with questions pegged to current events.

For more information about forecasting, check out our introductory guide. Or, visit our FAQ.

You can also email Christian Williams, the Gulf Breeze resident behind this contest. Further, email us if you'd like to cover this forecasting series, or if you live outside Gulf Breeze and want help launching a similar initiative for your city!

Your privacy matters. We don't sell your data. Individual forecasts remain private. The City of Gulf Breeze will have access only to anonymized, aggregated predictions—meaning we combine everyone's forecasts to create a "Community Prediction" that taps into the wisdom of the crowd. Learn more here.

Remember: You Can Update Your Forecasts Anytime. Your score isn't just determined by your prediction when the question resolves; it's also determined by how close to right you were for how long.

See the official tournament rules here for details about eligibility, prize distribution, and more.

City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest

Questions